The Equanimist

Response to Global Trends 2025, Part I: Country at a Crossroads

Posted in *HIGHLIGHTS, National Security, Politics, Public Policy, Socioeconomy by equanimist on November 26, 2008

US technological and strategic advantages are not insuperable and, the US has lost luster (if not real ground). To retain (or regain) global standing, US “elites” must voluntarily or US stewards must demand that they take aggressive proactive roles developing innovations that will assure continued great power status or be willing to (1) leave successive generations a weaker and increasingly less relevant US, (2) experience real declines in domestic standards of living and (3) leave the US and its allies prone to a hostile multi-polar world wherein destruction might be mutually assured and success might be mutually precluded. Will the US rise to the challenges of 21st century leadership?

First on a long to-do list is an overdue green revolution. The world wants power to fuel rising standards of living. Fossil fuels will be insufficient to supply demand (esp. within a context of global climate change). Whoever develops cost-effective low-impact energy solutions to meet ever increasing energy needs will wield extraordinary power in a new middle-class world. Alternatively, it seems only reasonable to assume that emerging-power energy requirements will significantly raise the possibility of international conflict.

Second, significant overtures ought be made to bring China and Russia into the Western fold. Western powers ought not appease these rising Eastern powers and, there is no sense in antagonism. (Does Poland need missile defense, for example? Should not a meaningful US umbrella suffice?) Western civilization is not a cult of democracy but a democratic solution to the problem of good governance. Is there no room in the West for liberalization on different tracks? Is there no possibility that we might learn something new? We are not so young or so unstable that we cannot stand a little competition. Parallel development of effective governance strategies ought not be viewed with fear but with healthy skepticism. China, in particular, does seem to be following a liberalization strategy and, as such, may be seen to approach Western-style socialized democracy vis-a-vis democratized socialism.

Third, while excessive nationalism is generally insupportable and counterproductive, the US is clearly spread too thin. More care must be taken that globalization is not a race to the bottom. Global Trends warns against some vague “protectionism” that might be better described as isolationism (and xenophobia?) That the US cannot recoil from the world does not admit that the US can afford the consequences of too liberal foreign policies. A balance must be found between the national and global interest.

Fourth, the US must reinvest in infrastructure (to include human capital). Among themes that recur in Global Trends, the US despite extraordinary natural, intellectual, cultural and technological resources is losing ground. The implication is US infrastructure is failing for lack of maintenance. The Ayn Rand model of Greenspan’s “free-”market capitalism is failing. Too liberal market policies have resulted in nearly four decades of radical redistribution of wealth on the one hand and decelerating pace of US innovation on the other. For as long as US stewards continue to indulge libertarian market fantasies and refuse to make hard choices, US infrastructure will deteriorate because self-interested individuals cannot be counted upon to make consistently wise strategic decisions. Isn’t that why we adopt governance over anarchy in the first place? Complacency and profit taking (profiteering?) have left the US vulnerable and pose real danger to US standing.

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